Pointspreads & How to Spot a Bargain
Discover why a 3½ point line can be a better value than 9½ points!

Football scoring is a "numbers game" … points are added to the score in units of 2, 3, 6, 7 or 8. With this in mind, its important to realize that certain point spreads are more important than others. Because a relatively high percentage of games end with a margin of victory in increments of these numbers, it's imperative that attention be paid to the most meaningful point spreads.

Well over half of all pro football games end with one of ten possible differences in the score: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, or 17. So, the "Half-Point" move off any of these numbers can represent a significant betting opportunity.

Watch for Threes!
For example, a line of +3.5 is a bargain compared to that same underdog at +3 … this indicates that the favored team must now score a touchdown as opposed to a field goal in order to win the game. So, in essence, a line move to +3.5 can be considered much more significant that, say, a line move from +5 to +5.5. And, by the same logic, a point spread that moves from +3 to +2.5 indicates a riskier proposition on the underdog. These half-point line changes from a point spread of 3 can be much more significant than larger changes.

For instance, a line change from +7.5 to +9.5 is hardly worth noticing. Because football games do not usually end with a margin of 8 or 9, the move from +7.5 to +9.5 doesn't make much difference. When a team covers, or fails to cover, 7.5 points, they almost always cover, or fail to cover, 9.5 as well.

The 13 Most Important Numbers in Football Betting

To gamble on football, it's important to realize that certain scores are more likely to occur than other scores. Would you believe that only 13 different numbers represent more than 66% of all NFL football scores!

It's true! When predicting final football scores, you must take into account these REAL NUMBERS … 7, 10, 13, 14, 16, 17, 20, 21, 23, 24, 27, 28, and 31

These numbers (plus scores in the category of "Over 40") are the only real numbers worth considering when forecasting the final outcome. Always adjust your predictions accordingly. In other words, say you've forecast the Titans over the Rams by a score of 30-26 … this score probably won't happen! Adjust your numbers to a score with a higher probability of occurring … say, 31-24 or 28-27. Now you are dealing with a point spread worthy of consideration.

More Gambling Tips

Find the Best Betting Lines

This is perhaps the most important online betting tip we can offer - shop for the best possible odds from the online sportsbooks. There are two ways to do this in our opinion:

1. Surf the internet sportsbooks, register with as many as possible in order to have access to their betting lines, and before placing any wager, check each sportsbook's lines to see who offers the best odds on a particular wager. Sounds like a lot of work, but nobody said gambling was easy.
OR
2. Follow our recommendation for the sportsbooks that consistently offers the most competitive lines for betting on football - click here

Don't Give Away More Than a Touchdown in the NFL
It may work in college football, but laying more than 7 points in the pros is a sure fire way to empty your wallet. The difference in talent between two college teams is often large enough to warrant giving up double digits, but NFL matchups are rarely that lopsided.

Be Selective
Be realistic - what are the odds of you picking every game correctly on a given week? Be selective and look for the 3 or 4 solid games that you feel most strongly about having picked correctly. Don't try to come up with a wager on every game, simply for the sake of having some action going. And don't let the fact that a game is televised influence your decision to pass on it. It is okay to watch a game purely for the enjoyment of the sport

Look for Value in Lesser Known College Teams
The oddsmakers typically have a better feel for the college football programs that are consistently in the top-20. Because of this fact, bargain lines will be hard to come by for the "glamour" teams. Look for games between some of the lesser-known programs when shopping for good value betting lines.

Don't Overreact to Blowouts
Quite often after a rout (especially Monday Night games), casual bettors can't wait to jump on the winner and against the loser the following week. Don't fall into this trap - as the saying goes, "On any given Sunday ..."

Don't Be Scared to Lay Big Numbers in College
In college football, there is a huge difference in talent level from one program to the next. Don't be afraid to lay double digits - if you've done your homework and it supports the numbers, don't hesitate to play a big favorite.

Pay Attention to Strength of Schedule
It happens every year - in college and the NFL - teams post gaudy numbers for several weeks in a row against inferior competition. Eventually, they'll meet a tougher opponent, and chances are the line will be over inflated due to public sentiment based on the team's previous games. Pay as much attention to WHO a team has played as to HOW a team has played.